Hi {{first_name | friend}} -
I came across this quote last week that stopped me in my tracks:
When the rate of change inside an institution becomes slower than the rate of change outside, the end is in sight. The only question is when.
My first reaction: this feels true about OpenTent. Our industry is surely changing faster than we are as a company. Eek. Are we screwed?
Second reaction: wait. This has to be true about, like, EVERY company right now. The pace of change is SO fast in the world. Does anyone feel like they are keeping up??
AI.
Global warming.
Multiple wars.
Whiplash politics.
Measles?
They even canceled Stephen Colbert!
With the possible exception of a few startups on the cutting edge of AI development, I have to think that every single team out there believes they are not adapting fast enough.2
Which leads me to a third reaction:
Helping people deal with this insane pace of change is going to be one of the biggest needs of our time.
Everyone is looking for calm and confidence amid the turmoil. How can we be of service, especially when we too are seeking the same thing?
A big concept in nonprofit land is the “Theory of Change”: the model that shows the impact the organization is trying to make happen. The model shows how inputs lead to outputs and outcomes.
I wonder if instead of emphasizing that kind of linear prediction model, we need a different framework that emphasizes dynamic process.
Call it a Theory of Changing.
It describes the continuous, iterative process by which we plan to shift our behaviors, beliefs, structures, and relationships in response to what’s happening around us. It’s about learning rather than predicting.
A Theory of Changing would describe how the organization plans to adapt as it works on its Theory of Change. It embraces uncertainty by emphasizing agility rather than accuracy.
When you’re charting a course on stormy waves, it matters very little what direction you pointed the steering wheel when you first set out. It matters immensely how you adjust the wheel throughout the duration of the journey.
I was chatting last week with an OpenTent client. They made a five year strategic plan in the spring of 2024 (paying a consultant very handsomely to do so). Then instead of kicking it off at the start of their fiscal year in July, they decided to insert a “Year 0” of the plan first given all the uncertainty - it was an election year, economic troubles, staffing turnover, etc. And then this client told me that this month they decided to insert “a second Year 0” for this fiscal year because they are still not yet ready to start the five year plan the consultant made for them.
What if instead of making a five year plan for them, the consultant had helped design an organizational rhythm for navigating “Year 0”?
These days, every year is Year 0.
And every day is Day 1.
Good luck out there captains!
1 In the book The Founder’s Mentality which is quite good!
2 And even those cutting edge startups feel the heat in a big way
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I really like the book Yes to the Mess by Frank Barrett. Barrett is a jazz pianist and writes about the workplace as if it were a jazz band, getting together to practice, improv, solo, and perform. I find it a liberating perspective on how change happens within teams - it helps me remember that we’re all just here to figure it out together, not get it right from the jump.